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By Asim Qadeer Rana
Islamabad, Oct 26: With likely 22 National Assembly seats after final delimitation notification by Election Commission of Pakistan in coming days, MQM to make a resounding come back in winter General Elections 2024 with likely win of more than 10 National Assembly seats.
Karachi’s total National Assembly seats to date prior to ongoing delimitation stands at 20 NA-230 to NA-250 in 2018 General Elections.
Pride News Election Room predictor, indicates
that Karachi now stand-alone mainly belonging to MQM since PPP have largely neglected its Urdu speaking community, which now believes that their future rests with MQM.
After Altaf Hussain’s tirade against establishment, the community felt itself sidelined, and aloof from main stream development, and progressive benefits meant for Karachi city’s population. The large proportionate of Karachi’s population comprise of Mohajir community, and now Pakhtunkns, second in population density on numeric indicators.
In last General Elections 2018 Karachi’s chemistry glimpse of various parties were completely different due to establishment’s key support extended to Pakistan Tehreek E Insaf, now facing a backlash over anti-Pakistan May 9 riots.
But if we scale back in history – Karachi had always been supportive to MQM from 1988 to 2008.
When MQMs Kite, first reflected on the ballot papers fight back in year 1988, it had secured 9 out of 11 seats with almost 82 percentage of voters support from the port city.
In the next General Elections in 1990 MQM – comprising mostly again with the famous Mohajir support, won 10 out of 11 seats.
In year 1993 MQM showed altercation against few policies, and went for a boycott, and the number of seats scaled down by 1997 elections to 9, but again maintained 82 percentage of voter support.
But in 2002 General Elections despite former President Gen Pervez Musharraf being in power, and his tilt towards MQM, Altaf’s party had won 12 seats out of 20 a dip – mainly due to American invasion of Afghanistan, and lost most of the seats to Muthaida Majlis Amal – a religious party breaking into MQM voters.
MQM vote back was still close to 60 percent of its total voters count.
In 2008 General Elections MQM snitch the show by making a come back winning 17 seats out of 20, and maintained the same steam even in 2013 General Elections, where PTI surfaced off the shore winning first single seat from Karachi.
It was a single seat — NA-250 win by PTI , as they bagged a huge number of votes in terms of voting count.
However, in 2018 General Elections with establishment’s all-out support created deep fissures in PPPs bunker when Bilalwal Bhutto Zardari lost its Liyari stronghold seat from Karachi NA-246 against PTI’s Shakoor Shad.
PTI secured 14 out of 21 National Assembly seats, also winning the MQM-P stronghold – where it had lost provincial assembly seat from NineZero against PTI.
However, in the last elections MQM was divided with conflict in its ranks, and party workers and leaders forming their own independent political party or teams like – Pak Sarzameen Party – headed by Mustafa Kamal, and few party leaders were in disagreement with MQM leader Altaf Husaain’s decisions – support to its militant wing, and hardcore anti-establishment policies which had a fall back on Mohajirs, ultimately denying MQM its pet vote bank.
MQM in the last General Elections had only won four National Assembly seats from Karachi out of total 21 seats of National Assembly.
However, this winter in January 2024 coming General Elections MQM would likely to return in a far better way wining more than 10 National Assembly seats indicate PrideNews predictor, despite facing tough competition coming from PPP, JUI-F, and even from ANP, PML-N, and last but not the least, controversial PTI – as it’s vote bank might swing to other parties aligned with Khan’s progressive ideology, or support.
“It will be MQMs call – Karachi for all communities, since all the flown away flocks are back together,” said one political analyst, Mashood Mirza.
“MQM will dent, and will gain the lost space to PTI this time, and give a tough time to PPP as well,” maintained Mirza observing Karachi’s politics for last three decades, and also living in Karachi.
“PPP may face a wipe-off of its few famous faces it has been dependant in the last General Elections 2018, while few faces of PTI going off the seen, besides MQM will have a grooving come back – and a surprise for many in Karachi,” observed Mirza.
“Without MQM – Mohajirs have no place to hide and cover up, and it’s a principal proven fact, and we are witness to this fact that during the last two decades PTI – PPP – JUI-F, and even others have not supported the Mohajirs the way they were suppose to – from Eductaion, jobs and development projects,” insisted Mirza.
Ends.
