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By Sardar Khan Niazi
The EU, the UK, and the UN, as well as Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Egypt, have rejected Israel’s announcement that it plans to launch a ground operation in Rafah. All have warned that such an incursion will result in a horrific human toll.
Rafah has tens of thousands of Gazans who have fled from Gaza City, Jabalia, Bureij, and other refugee camps, as well as Khan Younis, where Israel has said it dismantled Hamas’ main operational headquarters and killed thousands of its fighters. It now says it needs to enter and clear Rafah of the last four battalions belonging to Hamas. It also believes most of the Israeli captives are there.
Netanyahu has ordered his army to prepare an evacuation plan. He suggested that Rafah residents head to the northern part of the Strip, but the UN and other aid agencies warned that much of the north has become a wasteland with no access to humanitarian aid.
The logistics of moving such vast numbers of civilians, already suffering from malnutrition and disease, debunks Netanyahu’s suggestion that his army has the safety of civilians as a priority.
Joe Biden has changed his tone on Israel’s four-month war on Gaza about the killing of more than 28,000 Palestinians so far and the vast destruction of at least 60 percent of civilian infrastructure, rendering more than 1.8 million people homeless and displaced.
He used foul language to describe Netanyahu’s rebuff of US attempts to conclude a negotiated, lengthy truce coupled with the release of captives. Instead, Netanyahu rejected what he called Hamas’s delusional demands, which included a conditional ceasefire and an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, and vowed to push into Rafah to secure a decisive victory.
Despite the support of Israel since the Oct. 7 Hamas attack, Biden has promised to open a clear path toward the fulfillment of a two-state solution, i.e., the creation of a Palestinian state. Netanyahu has flatly rejected Biden’s premise and vowed that Israel will have absolute control over all the territories west of the River Jordan. He has also brushed off Biden’s suggestion that Gaza is part of the future Palestinian state and that the Palestinian Authority must take over once Hamas is defeated.
Biden is under pressure from America’s Arab allies. For Egypt, a Rafah offensive will almost certainly push tens of thousands of fleeing Palestinians across the border and into Sinai. So worried is Cairo that it has deployed tanks and air defense systems close to the border.
Egypt cannot tolerate Israel’s control of the Philadelphi Corridor. Its most recent warning to Israel hinted that any breach could lead to the suspension of the peace treaty between the two.
Biden’s government had hoped to entice Netanyahu by reviving normalization talks between Saudi Arabia and Israel. However, Riyadh dampened Washington’s hopes by stressing that Israel must first end the war in Gaza and commit to a clear path toward a Palestinian state before such talks can commence.
America’s Arab allies now believe that the Biden administration has no advantage over Netanyahu, whose defiance has humiliated and frustrated the US administration. They want to see regional de-escalation taking place, especially as Israeli crimes in Gaza have inflamed popular sentiments and heightened tensions in south Lebanon, the Red Sea, Iraq, and Syria.
However, for Biden, Israel’s war has also become a domestic issue in a decisive election year. Polls show that young Democratic voters are overwhelmingly opposed to his support of Israel and are in favor of an immediate ceasefire. Polls also show that Biden is at risk of losing the Arab-American and Muslim-American votes in November because of the war in Gaza.
